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Min \\ Max VS Standard Deviation: The War of the indicators (2) VS

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is in the most total humiliation that our war is the average of the distributed battlefield during the last fight. .. It became aware of its weaknesses: it is aided by his two companions, Minimum and Maximum, she decided to return to the front ... ;-) And yes ...

During my last demonstration I set the default using the average to report a distribution (a set of data). But the average has two indicators that could help account for a data set: the minimum and maximum. So can we use the average if it is accompanied by the minimum and maximum indicators ...!?

To try to answer them I will rely on the memory of an error management system that strongly influenced me.
The head of a purchasing department had to define the goals of his team for the upcoming year. The objective of the previous year was based on the cumulative service rate to the year (the service rate shows the fraction of orders that are delivered). For our example we assume the service rate target last year was set at 97% (ie that on average: 100 lines of when orders are placed by customers, 97 will be delivered, the other 3 undelivered lines corresponding to stockouts).

Here is the result of the year just past ...
As you can see, there were large variations during the year. And our manager remembers well the pressure he had suffered on the part of clients and its hierarchy, during weeks 20 to 24 ... He did not want to relive it, so he decided to set two goals for his team: the first will remain on the annual average (97% of its proud, he stood on it), and the second would cover a maximum rate of only minimum service to not exceed (say 96 %)...

I saw two constraints in the choice of this indicator:
- First: when the threshold is exceeded: the teams are unmotivated because the goal would be missed and premium objective with. :-(
- Secondly: weeks with a very low level indicator make it more "vulnerable" to the inevitable failures (the delivery problem supplier) and inversely surges of activity could cause disruptions and technical lead exceeding the threshold.
In summary the calculation was not representative of the variation in the rate of service or motivating the team to Purchaser.

So I proposed a target based on the standard deviation and increased service levels as shown in this graph:

The objective was to reduce the standard deviation (corresponding to the average change) half (the orange line past the previous graph line on the light green graph). And reassess target at 97.5% for average annual service rate (dark green). Knowing that after a short study, the removal of outliers that were the weeks 20 to 24, easily could achieve this new rate. Thus reducing the average change was a direct result of an improvement in the rate of annual service.
I saw two well done:
- The measurement of the change on the whole of the motivation remains.
- Improving service levels to improved overall customer satisfaction, hierarchy and department employees who could be proud of having achieved a real goal.

What the manager decided:
Following my suggestion, the manager was trying to validate this type of calculation in setting its target ... only problem: he did not master the math ...!
And considering that he was unable to master the calculation of the indicator he shortens it wrong he was unable to control the indicator and thus the aim of its staff ... So he set his minimum goal by adding a tolerance threshold is exceeded over a week.

Epilogue: In mid-year heat wave came ... Product sales Mosquito exploded ... Suppliers were unable to meet market demand ... The suppliers were very well done Leut work ... and had no premium on their goal ... but the main thing was this: they could explain it!

This time: the Min and Max have won the battle because they blew the market away type ... but admit that the case is rather unfair! is not it?!

Will it one final battle to decide the ...!? ;-)

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Average Median: The War of the indicators is launched ...! What

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The idea of this post came to me after a response to a comment. The commentary, by Bernard Sady (which I highly recommend consulting his blog for his interest and perseverance in the updates) raised the question of the necessity of using complex indicators such as median and quartiles ...

We all have in mind, the "conventional wisdom" ... It is these "ideas" (already transmitted to our brains many times, either by listening or by doing) that allow us to think faster and move forward in our thinking. There is therefore no question of criticizing the belief as such but to ensure they not make us too lacking ... For amidst the thousands of ideas are hidden misconceptions ...

So when the question of the complexity of the indicator "median and quartiles," I have been asked: I was myself have fallen into the trap and said to myself ... it's true that the median is more complex than the average but it is more "robust" ... Overall this is wrong! The median is equally accessible to the average ... I would say even more accessible! ;-P

So let's make the demonstration ...

The example of the average basket.
In retail, the average basket lets you know on average how much Customers buy goods when they pass in hand. In short: the average revenue per checkout. I remember during a visit to store a large sign, having listened to the complaints director of a marketing campaign implemented by the franchise. For 20 euros purchase, the store was a gift. The wrath of the director was that the 20 euros corresponded to average basket (or even slightly below) and therefore, this action did not encourage commercial customers to buy more than they used to take. The reasoning is the road is not it ...!?
But after a very brief study a sample of receipts we can realize that our director was in the wrong ...
Here is a "box plot" resulting from treatment of this sample:


A "box plot" is a graphical representation of a data set. It shows the average (mean in English) + / - standard deviation (which corresponds to the change in average) and quartiles (ie cutting the distribution 4). So we can observe that the average basket was 23.64 euros with an average change of 29.60. The median is 15.66 euros which means that half customers buy less of goods of 15.66 and a half in purchases more than EUR 15.66. With the 1st and 3rd quartile we find that half the customers buy between 7.87 and 29.42 euros in goods. Finally a quarter of the best clients buy between 29.42 euros and 1379 merchandise.
So now let us return to our problem of commercial action ... According to what we just saw 50% of customers buy up to 15.66 worth of goods ... So if we offer a gift from 20 euros purchase we encourage more than half the customers to buy more than usual. In conclusion this commercial action is not so meaningless as that ...! ;-)

To reverse the conventional wisdom ... The average is used and controlled by each. And because human nature abhors a change: so people prefer to use tools they have mastered at the expense of the correctness of their judgments. But upon reflection is that the median is more difficult to access than the average? The median is a value that is in reality the data processed. The median is the value that bisects the data, this value is existing, it really does not emanate from a calculation. While the average has no reality. I think that in France women have 1.8 children on average 1.8 ... This is not "traceable" to reality, while the median, she would be!

Well, the first battle (the one that pitted the average median) is completed ... but the war continues! Soon the battlefield will oppose the min and max cons standard deviations ... ;-)

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indicator your Lean Six Sigma project ...?

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is done ... you have decided: you start a project lean six sigma ...! You have completed your "project charter", you have defined your processes with "process map" of the "value stream map" ... etc.. And then you arrive at the crucial stage of your choice indicator. What is your Y? The value that you will follow in time, analyze, dissect in detail to see what it is, the phenomena that led him to change ... etc.. For projects of lean manufacturing this step is less critical because the indicator is often the number of defects found on the chain of production or productivity indicators. But in the services we will see that the choice is less easy. The fundamental

: Your Y must be your problem! (As would the other: it goes without saying but I feel better by saying it) That is to say that if your indicator is changing the way you want, the problem that you identified when you start your project must be eradicated . I followed the LSS project a key account manager. His problem was that its customers undertook six months in advance and that D-Day of the promotion there could be disruptions or delays in delivery that made his client did not have the goods he had ordered . The first reflex of the green belt was to watch the side of Rupture ease led them to choose the service level indicator. So we ask the question: what if I upgrade my service rate, I'm sure my client sent me his order six months in advance will be delivered? Well no! The service rate accounts for the fraction of the order is delivered. So there is no notion of time in this indicator. If the customer is delivered all of its order with 15 days late the rate of service of this order will be 100%. The reverse reaction may be to choose the time between required delivery date and the date of final delivery of the order. But there again if we rely on what comes late, it means that we reject what is never delivered ... This indicator is not indicative of our problem. Here the Y closest to the problem of our green belt is OTD (On Time Delivery) which represents the portion of the command that is delivered on time. So yes the number of days of delay and the number of breaks will play on our Y, but there may be many other indicators in conjunction with our problem. For example, if an order has not reached the minimum order, it will be nice to have the stock and shipping high-performance ... the command will not be delivered because ... this is not validated So a new indicator related to our problem: the number of blocked control. All these indicators that revolve around our issues will help in the analysis phase ... but let's face it: during the selection phase of our Y: they clutter up our mind and make it difficult to choose our main indicator .

To conclude: when you choose your there you have a question for you: If I improve this indicator is that I'm sure my problem goes away?

Feel free to submit issues to comment if you have any doubts in the your choice of indicator LSS! ;-)

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How to use the value stream map on a transactional process?

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The Value Stream Map is involved in a project LSS several levels. Initially it will allow us to define a process (in step Define) and then we can also serve us in step and Improve Analysis for ideas to improve and develop.

Here is an example of MSM:


Using the Value Stream Map is very common in plants. This tool allows to visualize the distribution of time across the manufacturing process, between what is of value and what is the waste of time. The value stream map also identifies bottlenecks and in-process inventory between each production shift. For the uninitiated this video will understand the concept of VSM:


After these few introductory material on the VSM will be readily understood that implementation of this tool for transactional process falls no sense. Effectively in our desks, we have little stock, a notion of productivity, in-progress, etc .... We have the transactions! Then we can really establish VSM under a proposed organizational audit type LSS. The answer is yes and I go, this not show you how: I've

specially constructed an example (based on my experience on a few projects LSS). This is a process of processing a request to amend tariffs.
Here's what the MSM would look like this type of process:

So here is our process with reduced 4-step. The first one is to issue PCR (Price Change Request) request to amend tariffs, and then we have a manager who approves the request, then it is sent to finance that finally validates the claim that it is integrated into the system last. (This example is intentionally simplistic to understand the interest and the cog in the MSM in our office ;-)

On the bottom line you can view the working time for the treatment of a rate change. That is what we call value added. The client process, ie one that creates the demand to amend tariffs spend 30 minutes to 1 hour, then the manager will spend one quarter of an hour to view and validate ... etc..
On the top line you're waiting times between each operator. This period is expressed as an average and is husked by an analysis of the distribution that we present each quartile and the median. Here we can observe that the person who handles the integration of data into the system (the last link in the chain) does the job an average of 0.9 days after receiving the request. We can realize with the third quartile in the three quarters of cases the application is processed the same day that his show.
In the end table you can see from this example that the process contains 1hr value and it can take between 0 and 46 days.

The VSM allows us to have here first elements of answers from which the observed differences in time. But if this tool is sufficient in itself to a production plant to see exactly where the problem occurs, it will be in a transactional process of digging the reasons for the delay. Because in this example: what tells us that the time taken by finance does not come from a poor manager who requires validation of finance to make return trips to get the information necessary to process data. Similarly what we are told that the fare integration in the system is not too fast and that it should require additional checks ... etc..

Voili voilo ... I hope this example will help you understand a little better how the Value Stream Map can be useful in the analysis of a transactional process.

If you have any questions, feel free to submit a comment. I'd be happy to answer them ;-)

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Project Charter - The project kick off LSS

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Well, as you say I am not very excited about writing this ticket.

For the "project charter" is not a fundamental methodology in the LSS. If it is not used, it does call into question any way the success of your project ... Basically I personally think we could do without it!

So why talk about it!?
I'll talk about because even if the "project charter" does not bring much in a purely operational, function and unifying symbol in turn is required!

The "project charter" (which you can download an example isixsigma.com ) symbolizes the start of the project and thereby return a LSS project is a project in itself ...

And as such it is worth remembering que votre projet LSS comportera :
un début, une fin, un planning, un périmètre d'action, une équipe, un objectif...etc.

La project charter sert donc à cela : à appréhender les éléments fondamentaux qui permettront au projet de se dérouler sereinement. Tout au cours du projet, si un doute nait d'une discussion sur le périmètre ou l'objectif du projet, c'est une consultation de la project charter qui permettra d'avancer. Et en ce sens la project charter tient un rôle fédérateur. Lors des réunions d'avancement présentées devant la direction, là encore c'est la project charter qui permettra d'introduire le projet en rappelant les objectifs fixed upstream ... etc.. Finally

for someone who has never fought a LSS project is a good tool for asking the right questions before you start and put the answers on a formal document.

Namely:
What is my purpose? Do I have already identified a problem? What is my project integrity? What does not fall within the scope of my project? Is my hierarchy is aware of this problem? On whom can I continue my support for the project in case of problems? What skills will I need on this project? What I enjoy resources to conduct this project? Who will be able to attend upon the data processing? What planning can be implemented? ... Etc..

Voili voilo ...

One last thing: the project charter is a document that lives throughout the project ...! If during the data analysis I realized that the scope of action is not the right one, so I return the document, modify it and I continued my project ... It is a document that allows you to frame things ... not to lock them up! ;-)